May was the first full month after the federal budget, and the numbers show a recalibrated market rather than a slowing one. 112,857 new businesses were registered nationally, up 6.77% year on year. 32,094 of those were companies, up 0.33%. The pace has eased from 2025’s record run, but the absolute volumes remain at the higher end of historical norms, and the broader picture has clear bright spots.

The structural shift this month is the standout signal. Trust registrations fell 42.3% year on year, the steepest single-month decline we have recorded, following the budget announcement of a 30% minimum tax on discretionary trust distributions from July 2028. Companies stalled at +0.33%, well down on the 17-23% monthly growth we saw through late 2025. Founders setting up considered structures appear to be waiting for clarity. Sole traders, in contrast, continued to grow at 9.74% year on year and remain the dominant entity type by a wide margin. The geographic story is genuinely optimistic, and the growth is spreading. Tasmania led every state and territory at +25.71% year on year, followed by the Northern Territory at +15.40%, South Australia at +12.44% and Western Australia at +11.11%. The eastern capital cities still carry the largest absolute volumes, but the strongest growth rates are increasingly outside Sydney and Melbourne. Regional share of new registrations held above 31%, consistent with the pattern we have tracked all year of activity dispersing into outer suburbs, regional centres, and the smaller states.

The founder profile is also maturing. The 45 to 54 age cohort gained the most share year on year, while Personal and Other Services and Property and Business Services led the industry mix. Read together, the May data does not point to a slowdown so much as a reshaping. The 2025 boom has normalised, the most policy-sensitive structures have paused, and growth has shifted toward smaller states, regional Australia, and more established founders.